محمدعلی مقامی ( سه شنبه 88/6/10 :: ساعت 2:24 عصر)
Swine flu, a looming storm
Tehran Times Health Desk September 1, 2009
TEHRAN -- If the current trend continues, high swine flu death rate is inevitable in Iran, an official at the Health Ministry warned here on Sunday.
About 7 to 8 percent of those being treated in hospitals across the country for swine flu could die, Mahmoud Nabavi said.
When it becomes epidemic across the country, no exact figures can be given on its fatality rate, Mahmoud Nabavi said, underscoring that about 8 percent of the hospitalized patients are predicted to die.
With the new school year upon us, the potential for rapid spread of A flu -- and the educational and economic disruption that come with it -- is high, Nabavi warned.
The swine flue burst onto the scene in Iran in June 22 and the first swine flu fatality was reported in Iran last week as an addicted adult woman succumbed to the disease.
And now, according to the latest official report on August 26, a total of 285 Iranians are sick with the H1N1 virus, Nabavi said, blaming the spread of the disease on the frequent travel links between the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia where the virus has been spreading unchecked for some time.
Most recently, MP Hossein Ali Shahriyari of the Majlis Health Committee spoke of at least 10 million infections attributable to H1N1 in Iran by the next two years in the case the current pace continues.
According to Nabavi, 98% of flu patients recover with no medicine.
The fatal form of the disease, which requires highly specialized care, affects the lungs and results in severe respiratory failure, Nabavi explained.
According to him, severe and fatal forms of the disease occur in people aged above 80.
While 90 percent of severe and fatal cases occur in people above 80, most of those who die from swine flu are those under 50. “The old account for 5% of fatal cases, and 60% of them will die after contracting the H1N1 bug,” Nabavi added.
Swine flu emerged in Mexico in April and quickly spread around the globe.
According to the latest WHO figures, more than 2,180 people around the world have died from the virus over the past four months.
The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show 7,983 hospitalizations and 522 deaths in the United States caused by swine flu.
While the WHO classifies the H1N1 virus as a phase 6 pandemic because of its reach, it takes great pains to point out that in terms of severity, the pandemic is ""moderate"" because people generally recover without the need for hospitalization or medical care, the Washington Post said.
Where there is justifiable concern is over who is susceptible to becoming infected. Unlike seasonal influenza, which strikes the elderly and others with weak immune systems, the swine flu has sickened healthy, young adults.
Keep in mind that we are our best protection against the disease. So
- Cover your cough.
- Wash your hands frequently.
- If you have a fever, stay home for at least 24 hours after that fever has ended.
- keep your children home if they are sick too.
- And get a vaccine when it becomes available
